Updated Model Projects Less COVID-19 Deaths in MN, But Uncertainty Remains

Minnesota health officials say a recently updated model from the University of Minnesota projects 22,000 COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota over the coming year.

But health officials downplayed the significance of that figure, which is about half of what the original model projected two weeks ago. They stressed that there’s a high degree of uncertainty, with a potential range of 9,000 to 36,000 deaths.

A University of Washington model differs drastically with the U of M model, with the Washington model projecting just 456 Minnesota deaths through August 4th. Health officials say that model makes some incredibly optimistic assumptions and doesn’t project deaths after four months, while the Minnesota model goes out a year and relies heavily on Minnesota-specific data.